Visit accents Putin’s war, gray zones, intel opportunities

It didn’t take an experienced human intelligence professional (HUMINT) like Fred Hoffman to interpret reactions among the people of Georgia to Vladimir Putin’s war in Ukraine. The signs were everywhere on his recent visit.

Still, Hoffman’s years in the Intelligence Community (IC), working in 28 different countries as an interrogator, overt collector, military attaché, and, now as an assistant professor of Intelligence Studies at Mercyhurst University, gave him a unique insight.

Hoffman was in Tbilisi, Georgia, earlier this month to meet with Georgian military and intelligence officials to share insights on a book he is writing about Putin and Russian attitudes toward the war as well as to present his own assessment of the conflict. His presentation was met with considerable interest and lively discussion, he noted.

“Strong Georgian interest in discussing the current conflict in Ukraine is not surprising, given that Russia and Georgia are neighbors, and especially because Russia invaded Georgia in 2008 and seized the regions of South Ossetia and Abkhazia,” said Hoffman, who was a military attaché in Europe during the five-day Russo-Georgian war. “Georgia’s a small country, and Russia now occupies roughly 20 percent of Georgia’s total land mass.”

The Georgian people want to have a good relationship with Russia, as they seek to do with all their neighbors in the Caucasus region, Hoffman said. However, since the Russian invasion in 2008, Georgians have been understandably wary of the Putin regime and its nationalistic expansionism.

While in Georgia, Hoffman said he was struck by the large number of Ukrainian flags and other popular expressions of Georgian support for Ukraine. One Georgian store receipt contained the language, “Thank you for your visit! 20% of Georgian territory is invaded by Russia! Slava Ukraini!” (translated: Glory to Ukraine).

Hoffman said he also encountered some of the nearly 80,000 Russians who have been streaming into Georgia to avoid conscription, which Putin had announced in late September.

“Georgians are world-renowned for friendliness and for having a hospitable culture, but right now they’re struggling to cope with a massive influx of conscription-age Russians,” Hoffman said.

Among the numerous facets of his book presentation, Hoffman described Russia’s use of nontraditional instruments of national power, including gray zone strategies. The term “gray zone” refers to strategic actions that occur in the contested arena somewhere between routine statecraft and open warfare and can include everything from fake news and online troll farms to terrorist financing and paramilitary provocations.

Hoffman is currently teaching Intelligence & Gray Zone Conflict at Mercyhurst, a course he created to examine gray zone strategy and its implications for the IC.

Hoffman said he was pleased to discover that following his presentation, Georgian officials expressed interest in working with Mercyhurst’s Intelligence Studies students on capstone research projects and in taking online courses in analytic techniques and other intelligence topics.

Mercyhurst students have performed such capstone research projects for IC organizations, law enforcement agencies, and private sector companies for many years and adding yet another relevant and challenging opportunity is just one more example of what differentiates Mercyhurst’s Intel program, Hoffman noted.